The global crypto sector is bracing for potential turbulence as major index provider MSCI weighs whether to exclude digital asset–heavy companies from its flagship equity benchmarks, a move analysts warn could force billions in passive outflows early next year.
Key Takeaways:
- MSCI is considering removing Bitcoin-heavy treasury companies from its major indexes, which could force billions in passive fund outflows.
- Investors say these firms increasingly resemble investment funds, putting companies like Strategy, Riot, and Marathon at risk of exclusion.
- JPMorgan warns Strategy alone could see up to $2.8B in selling pressure.
The discussion, which began quietly in October, has gained urgency after MSCI confirmed it is consulting the investment community on whether firms holding more than 50% of their balance sheet in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies should remain eligible for inclusion.
MSCI Weighs Exclusion of Bitcoin Treasury Firms Seen as ‘Investment Funds’
Feedback submitted so far indicates that many investors view digital asset treasury companies (DATs) as behaving more like investment funds rather than traditional operating businesses, a category MSCI does not normally allow in its core equity indexes.
The review runs through Dec. 31, with a final decision scheduled for Jan. 15 and any index adjustments arriving in February.
A preliminary list names 38 companies under review, including Michael Saylor’s Strategy, Sharplink Gaming, Riot Platforms, and Marathon Digital.
A JPMorgan note this week warned that Strategy alone could lose as much as $2.8 billion if MSCI excludes DATs, with roughly $9 billion of its estimated $56 billion market cap currently held by passive index funds.
JPMorgan analysts said Strategy risked being dropped from MSCI USA and the Nasdaq 100. They estimated that MSCI removal alone could trigger up to $2.8B in outflows, with more if other index providers follow.
Passive funds tied to the company already account for nearly $9B in market exposure, and a decision is expected by Jan. 15.
For a business that built its brand on wrapping Bitcoin exposure inside an equity ticker, index removal would hit more than trading volumes.
It would chip away at the institutional credibility that once made Strategy a popular way for fund managers to gain regulated access to the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
Strategy’s ascent followed a simple flywheel. The firm sold stock, bought Bitcoin, then used each rally in the token to justify more issuance and more accumulation. At the peak, its market value traded far above the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
That premium has largely disappeared and the company’s valuation now sits only slightly above the worth of its crypto reserves, a sign that investor conviction has faded.
Bitcoin’s Drop Tests Strategy’s Once-Reliable Momentum Engine
Bitcoin has shed more than 30% since its October peak, wiping over $1 trillion from the broader crypto market.
Strategy’s market net asset value (mNAV), the ratio comparing its enterprise value to its Bitcoin stash, has slipped to just above 1.1, signaling that the stock is trading only marginally above the value of the coins it holds.
The self-reinforcing cycle that once pushed Strategy’s shares higher with every new Bitcoin purchase is no longer delivering the same lift.
Yet Michael Saylor continues to press ahead. Earlier this week, Strategy bought 8,178 BTC for $835.6 million, paying an average of $102,171 per coin including fees.
The purchase brings the company’s total holdings to 649,870 BTC as of Nov. 16, 2025, accumulated at a combined cost of $48.37 billion, or $74,433 per Bitcoin on average.
Attention now turns to whether index providers and capital markets will continue backing this approach as the crypto cycle shifts and Bitcoin’s momentum cools.
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